Wars are easier to start than they are to conclude. That line, drawn from a confidential assessment by former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral James A. "Sandy" Winnefeld, Jr., is perhaps the most important frame through which to assess the events of the past 48 hours. What follows is an attempt to cut through the noise of the initial shock and offer a grounded, macro-level understanding of what is unfolding and why it matters well beyond the immediate theatre of conflict.

I. Iran Is Not Venezuela — The Complexity of This Conflict

It is tempting to draw comparisons to other geopolitical flashpoints, but Iran is categorically different from Venezuela or other regional actors the market has previously discounted. Iran sits astride the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20-25% of the world's total petroleum liquids and 20% of global LNG trade flow. Any prolonged closure of the Strait — a realistic near-term scenario — represents a supply shock of the firs…